Overview
Indexed Growth
Rebases all metrics to 100 in the starting year. This compares relative growth speed between Debt, Revenue, and Expenditures.
Growth rates have diverged significantly
Since the base year, debt has grown 176%, revenue 154%, and expenditures 136%. The 41-point spread between fastest and slowest indicates moderate divergence in growth trajectories.
Per-Resident Comparison
County in Stress phase
The fiscal regime has been classified as Stress for 1 consecutive year, based on the relationship between revenue and expenditure growth patterns.
Fiscal Health
Surplus / Deficit
Annual difference between total revenue and total expenditures. Positive values indicate a surplus, while negative values indicate a deficit.
Debt burden is high relative to history
The debt-to-revenue ratio is currently 1.15, which is moderate above the historical average of 1.04.
17-Year Deficit Streak
The county has run a budget deficit for the last 17 consecutive years.
Budget Deficit
The latest fiscal year ended with a deficit equal to 5.9% of revenue.
Debt to Revenue Ratio
A rising ratio indicates debt growing faster than revenue, revenue declining while debt remains constant or increases, or both debt increasing and revenue stagnating.
Debt and revenue growth have often moved in the same direction
The correlation between debt and revenue growth over the period is 0.56, suggesting that stronger revenue periods have often coincided with higher debt growth. This is a statistical association, not a statement about cause and effect.
Debt to Local Taxes Ratio
Answers whether the county can service its debt obligations from locally-controlled revenue sources alone, important during economic downturns when state/federal transfers may decline.
Historical Volatility Events
The period included 3 debt growth outliers (2012, 2013, 2022) and 2 revenue shocks (2017, 2018), defined as years where growth deviated significantly from the trend.
Debt Service to Expenses
Percentage of expenditures allocated to debt service.
Current Phase: Retrenchment
Based on recent growth in both revenues and expenditures, the county is currently in a Retrenchment phase.
Debt Service to Revenue
Measures how much of the incoming money is eaten by yesterday's borrowing.
Debt
Debt Trends
Debt Portfolio Concentrating
The mix of debt instruments has narrowed, with the concentration index showing a moderate increase relative to its historical norm.
Debt Trend vs Gap
Actual total debt compared to the long-term trend line.
Debt Above Long-Term Trend
Current debt is 18.1% above the historical trend line. This deviation is statistically large based on past variances.
Debt Volatility
Year-over-year growth rates. Highlights outlier years with significant changes in total debt load.
Debt per Resident
Debt per resident is extreme above historical average
The current debt per resident of $4021 is 47% above the 13-year average of $2736. This extreme deviation suggests increasing per-capita debt burden relative to history.
Revenue
Revenue Trends
Revenue Trend vs Gap
Actual total revenue compared to the long-term trend line.
Revenue Volatility
Revenue Mix
Contribution to Revenue Growth
Breakdown of year-over-year growth. Each segment shows how many percentage points a specific category contributed to the total revenue change.
Unusual Revenue Growth (-1.5%)
The latest year-over-year revenue growth of -1.5% is a moderate deviation from the historical average.
Local Taxes is Primary Revenue Source
In the latest fiscal year, Local Taxes contributed 52% of total county revenues, making it the single largest funding source.
Other Governments and Citizens Groups now plays a smaller role
Other Governments and Citizens Groups decreased its share of revenue by 8.3 percentage points, from 15% to 7%. This is the largest mix shift among major sources.
Fines, Forfeitures, and Penalties is Most Volatile Source
With a standard deviation of 9.7%, Fines, Forfeitures, and Penalties shows the most fluctuation in year-over-year growth, significantly higher than other revenue streams.
Highly Diversified Revenue Base
The revenue concentration index (HHI) is below 1500, indicating a healthy mix of funding sources without over-reliance on any single stream.
Revenue per Resident
Revenue per resident is large above historical average
Current revenue per resident of $3653 is 35% above the historical average of $2698, indicating strengthening fiscal support per capita.
Expenditures
Expenditure Trends
Expenditure Trend vs Gap
Actual total expenditures compared to the long-term trend line.
Functional Allocation
Contribution to Expenditure Growth
Breakdown of which functions contributed most to the year-over-year change in total spending.
Change by Function (2007 vs 2024)
Visualizes shift in funding priorities. Steep upward lines indicate functions that have grown significantly faster than the budget average.
Education is Largest Expense
In the latest fiscal year, Education accounted for 55% of total spending.
Capital Projects - Donated's budget priority has declined
Capital Projects - Donated's share of total expenditures decreased by 12.4 points over the period (from 12% to 0%), indicating a relative de-prioritization compared to other functions.
Spending Concentrated in Few Areas
The expenditure concentration index (HHI) indicates that the budget is heavily weighted among functions.
Spending Growth Moderate
Expenditures grew by -2.9% in the latest year, which is moderate lower than the historical average rate.
Debt service is taking a smaller slice of the budget
Debt service payments now consume 9.0% of total expenditures. This places the current burden below the historical average, signaling increased fiscal flexibility.
Data Sources
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